Monday, October 13, 2008

Where o where can the bottom be? O where o where can it be-e-e-e?

No doubt you'll be hearing people say: "Now's a great time to buy! Prices have rolled back five years!" And they have rolled back about five years, at least in the flat parts of Sherman Oaks. Behold an average Zestimate graph for the area:


But does that mean it's a great time to buy? Well, I don't think so. Because check out the graph of that same house for the last ten years:



Yeah. Uh-oh! We've got another price dump coming up. The credit crunch and the DOW are strangling out even the most obstinate buyers and so I am pretty confident that another round of meaningful reductions will come. I'm recommending not buying for another 6 months minimum (but I suspect we've got another 12 to 18 months to get serious about buying).

9 comments:

locust said...

"Are we there yet?" asked little Billie.

"I have to pee," said little Susie.

"We still have two more years," said Dad.

"Can you hold it in until we get there?" asked Mom.

Anonymous said...

The median sales price in the Valley during September was $231,200, down from $392,500 a year ago.

http://www.dailynews.com/ci_10800433

Anonymous said...

The LA Times says the median price is $392,500, down from $623,700 a year earlier.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-realblog26-2008oct26,0,4997945.story

Who's right?

Anonymous said...

Hi gang, Can we start a discussion on mortgage loan rates? Are they going up, down, sideways. Not gonna do much good if house prices come down but rates keep going up. Your thoughts?

R2K said...

6000

Anonymous said...

Where, o where is our hostess?

Emil said...

Prediction:
Prices are going to fall for quite some time even in more coveted neighborhoods. Companies of all kind of sectors are cutting back budgets, laying off people, etc. Who in the world would buy in the next 3 years if their jobs are not safe (even having right now money for a 20+% down payment)? A downward spiral...

AMIT said...

Very good information about market.

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