Wednesday, May 07, 2008

82% of Zip Realty readers think LA prices will drop.

And so do I.

(click image to enlarge)


Anonymous said...

Very interesting. So what is your best reasoned view, Kate & Kate's astute readers, on

a) what month/year the LA market will bottom


b)at that point, the median price will be equivalent to what past month/year (that is, a price rollback to what month/year)?

Anonymous said...

Market bottom: Jan. 2010.

Rollback to: Feb. 2003.

AndyA said...

I just scrolled through listing on the LA Times housing listing (from MLS?) and the worst house was sitting around $200,000 still. Too high! I bet these truly terrible places will drop to $150k before the land speculators will start snatching them up. So that means, another 25% drop from NOW.

So, Market Rollback to Dec. 03, and
Market Bottom: February 09.

Unless there's an earthquake.


Anonymous said...

Market Rollback to Spring 1998
Market Bottom Fall 2012 - then housing prices will more or less bump along that bottom for several more years.

AndyA said...

Love the optimism! Considering that the bottom of the last market dip was 1997, I think a market rollback that far would mean that houses have been a poor buy since before the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. If that 1997 bottom was the 'correct' value, then inflation alone brings the median price to about what they were in January '02 (me, eyeballing the graph). Then, the median price for Los Angeles was $240k.

I personally don't think that the median will drop that far, but our little house in Van Nuys could easily see that number again!