Friday, April 11, 2008

Stuff I'm looking at...

This new spring listing is something I have my eye on because it looks a lot like last year's crop of new spring listings. Thus, I'm wondering if it can move in '08 like it did in '07. This is an ideal listing to watch because it's in a pretty popular little neighborhood (so it has a fighting chance) and it's a cute well-staged house on an average sized lot. Last year, this house would've moved within a month. Let's take a closer look.

4525 CAMELLIA AVE, Studio City, CA 91602
(MLS #: 08_270259)

Bedrooms: 2
Full Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,754
Lot Size: 6,480 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1937

Last Sale: 03/22/02
Sales Price: $420k
Listing Date: 04/08/08
List Price: $899k

Zestimate™ $843,000

Sq. Ft. Stats:
Based on List Price: $513
Based on Zestimate™: $481
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $378
Sold Homes: $376

The kitchen is clean and has some charm but it's certainly not state of the art. And you know what they say: "kitchens sell houses."

The baths both seem like they are good sized and somewhat better updated than the kitchen:

So what do you guys think? How long will this house stay on the market? And at what price will it finally move? I'm thinking 90 days with a couple of price reductions and selling in the low $700s.


Laura in L.A. said...

It only has two bedrooms? Looks like the huge bath pictured used to be a bedroom!

With only two bedrooms, I'm betting it will dip down into the high $600s--say $690K--and won't sell before 120 days to some lucky knife-catcher.:):):)

Anonymous said...

$320 sounds about right.

l.a.guy said...

IF it was worth $420K in 2002 and you assume an annual appreciation of 3,4 or 5% a fair price in 2008 (based upon appreciation through 2007) would be:

3%: 486,895
4%: 510,994
5%: 536,038

Personally if I loved it, I might go as high as $550 in this market.]

You should keep an eye on it and let us know if/when it sales.

Anonymous said...

The two comps are $372 and $404/sqft, which puts this place between $650K and $710K based on comps. Of course, you have to include the bubble factor after that.

Anonymous said...

Nice looking house, Kate. I think it could go for as up as $710,000. Maybe a little lower than that as more inventory hits the market.

Anonymous said...

The bathroom and a walk-in closet were added in 2003 per

Anonymous said...

Here's the thing. Are we talking 20% down? Are we relying on traditional formulas to determine mortgage affordability like 3x income -- max?

If so, somone has to come up with about $160,000 in cash - COLD HARD CASH - and then on top of that they have to bring home $265,000 a year in salary.

Ain't going to happen. Some batshit crazy real estate agent will buy the property and end up losing their shirt when it finally settles in the 300's.

Anonymous said...

Want some crazy pricing? What is still going on in my neighborhood is much crazier than yours.
Two houses within 5 blocks of ours in Palo Alto: 1) $1400 per sq ft - 1040 sq ft on 4000 sqft. 2) $1500 sqft - 1000 sqft on 6000 sqft. #2 is a house my wife's dad built in the early 50's. Both houses sold at less than 2 weeks on the market.
One other data point: A $2000 sqft - 4000sqft on 20,000 sqft is still on the market after one year.
As they say - WTF?

Emil said...


Have you noticed how listing prices are starting to drop in the more coveted areas? Take Studio City for example. There are more and more listings around 600k and 700k. There were no such listings 1 year ago - at all! Sure, the ones that you find right now at around 600k are pure crap - houses that need to be completely demolished and that are not worth even 1/2 of their listing price (factoring in the money that you'll have to spend to demolish the house, to fix those retaining walls, etc).

Anonymous #5 is right. The market is still totally overpriced.

It's funny to hear the realtor's radio ads trying to sell you that it's cool to buy right now in LA:

"...every market is different..."

Yeah, but the LA market where this ad runs on the radio is still overpriced!

"... homes double their value every 10 years..."

Maybe in Wonderland... That would mean a yearly 8% appreciation (without even factoring in inflation). The historic national average is far less than that. Plus, you can forget about any substantial appreciation in the next 10+ years after this whole mess!

I get that realtors need to make a living too, but there is no need to lie to their clients! They already made their money during the boom... >:(

Emil said...

"Ain't going to happen. Some batshit crazy real estate agent will buy the property and end up losing their shirt when it finally settles in the 300's."

The idiots that are buying despite all, are the ones delaying the home price correction...