Saturday, January 12, 2008

For my condo shopping friends...

(Click to enlarge image)

There were several condos for sale on Ventura Canyon Avenue recently so I looked up one that appeared to sell. It was a 1,600 sq.ft. 2 bed/2.5 bath with one of those granite + stainless kitchens. It sold for $530k. Which is not too big of a surprise...

Until you realize that the identical unit next door sold for $610k in February 2006 (a 13% decline over two years). And the slightly bigger unit on the other side of it (1,700 sq.ft.) sold for a whopping $680k in July 2005. The graph above illustrates the sales on the $680k unit. Anybody wanna bet these units will be available in the $300k range by this time next year?

Check it out for yourself on Zillow.


Ace said...

You are right. There is a huge oversupply of 'luxury condos' coming online in the Valley.

Have you seen that really ugly condo complex on the corner of Riverside and Tujunga? They had a huge sign that said 'luxury condos from the low $500's'. They replaced that sign with '100 percent financing' and '$5000 moves you in'. They even tried getting a huge balloon last week. No one seems to be biting.

There is another brand new complex a few blocks further down Camarillo. They have been doing open houses 3 days a week for six months now and have not sold a single unit.

There are hundreds and hundreds more coming online this year. I keep telling my wife that new condos will be around $300k in a year. She doesn't believe me. We will see.

Anonymous said...

I went to a nice townhouse development in Valley Village and almost made an offer on a two bedroom unit. The development has been on the market for for about a year. In Feb of last year someone paid in the mid 800's for a two bedroom that you can probably get the today for $625K. Ouch!

But the reality is if you buy within your budget and like what you bought then the market value shouldn't matter to you. As long as they don't have to sell in the next few... ok ten... years they'll be fine.

It will be interesting to see what "luxury" condos will be going for in a couple of years. There is a ton of new units coming to market in the next 12 months.

Supply and demand baby!

bella said...

i've been considering buying a 2 bed 2 bath condo in glendale/ burbank area. any chance the prices will drop lower? think i shoudl wait a year?

i'll check for answer on this webpage.

Kate said...


Personally, I think anybody who buys right now is either not paying attention or has money to burn.

I am waiting at least another year. Prices have been dropping week after week and the experts are saying that this trend will continue through 2008 and possibly 2009.

bella said...


i'm going to wait as well. i think that's the wise thing to do. hopefully by mid 09, the market will be perfect enough for a great deal.